Recent news reports from Sierra Leone, a country where I’ve worked since 2004, aren’t looking good. Youth unemployment is sky high, at 60 percent. And these aren’t just any old youth. Many are former soldiers in the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) or the Sierra Leone Army (SLA), groups that terrorized civilians during the country’s brutal 1991-2002 civil war. The fear is that, without some gainful employment, these youth will be a cause of instability and even a return to war in the country.
This isn’t some idle concern. In work of mine with Shanker Satyanath and Ernest Sergenti of NYU, we showed that economic downturns in sub-Saharan Africa often lead to war the next year, and the effects are huge: a five percentage point drop in economic growth is associated with nearly a doubling of armed conflict risk. I elaborate on these issues more in my recent book Economics Gangsters with Ray Fisman (Princeton University Press 2008) and my forthcoming book Africa’s Turn? (MIT Press), the book that serves as the inspiration for this blog.
This is a photo of me in Makeni town, Sierra Leone, in front of a sign that states that the war is finally over. I hope that sign is still hanging when I next return to Sierra Leone.
It is clear that the consequences of economic downturn will not be very good. There is no need to war, guys. Make love, not war!