The news out of Madagascar is not good: democratically elected president Marc Ravalomanana has been pushed out of power essentially by a military coup, which has installed the photogenic 34-year old former DJ Andry Rajoelina in power. Besides the fundamental problem that Mr. Rajoelina was not elected, he also appears not to be constitutionally qualified to rule, being under 40 years of age.
Former Madagascar President Ravalomanana
I’ve already written on this blog recently about my fears about what the next year or two will hold for sub-Saharan Africa, as it tries to weather the global economic slowdown (see last week’s post on whether the 2010s are the new 1980s in Africa). The recent political violence in Guinea-Bissau, the growing threat of youth unemployment in post-war Sierra Leone (the unemployment rate apparently stands at 75% in the country’s eastern mining areas), and now this putsch in Madagascar have all led me to believe that things may be taking a turn for the worse. The questions on my mind now also relate to Kenya, the country where I’ve done most of my fieldwork: how long will the unhappy coalition marriage between President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga last in this climate? And Zimbabwe’s new “coalition”? And most importantly, how will the economic climate affect the upcoming vote in the regional powerhouse, South Africa? I’ll leave this last question for another post sometime soon.
To what extent do the disappointing politics of African countries still reflect the long shadow of colonialism? The pre-1960s experience of the state was that it was exploitative, and still so many people in so many countries grab power as something to be exploited, without a concept of the common good. Taking the whole of the continent, the political signs still seem pretty mixed, despite recent setbacks. My hope is that the spread of communications including mobile (which is, crucially, two-way) do mark a permanent shift in political possibilities - but we still wait to see.
You’ve raised a key concern, and in many cases - Kenya is a classic example - the colonial period set up patterns of governance that still haunt the society today. (David Anderson’s “Histories of the Hanged” lays out the brutality of colonial Kenya is graphic terms.) Despite these toxic legacies, I am also with you in feeling that there is hope despite recent setbacks. Mobile technologies are changing the organization of social movements. And, crucially I think, most countries have some experience with multiparty elections. There is a foundation to build on. The only question is how much of the edifice will be left standing at the end of the current global economic crisis.
Recently I came across two interesting articles touching on this question. This one was about Rwanda:
http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/134/special-report-rwanda-rising.html?page=0%2C0
and this in today’s Guardian by a correspondent leaving Africa after reporting there for 20 years - also mainly about Rwanda:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/27/chris-mgreal-africa-final-dispatch
Both well worth a read for nuanced views about politics and economic prospects